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  • 美国著名基金经理Tren Griffin:你可以从《成功方程式》学到的东西(下)

    2016-10-17 04:31:00 来源: 港股那点事


    9. “The trouble is that the performance of a company always depends on both skill and luck, which means that a given strategy will succeed only part of the time. So attributing success to any strategy may be wrong simply because you’re sampling only the winners. The more important question is: How many of the companies that tried that strategy actually succeeded?”

    “问题是一家公司的业绩表现总是跟能力和运气两者都挂钩,这意味着策略往往只能在某些时候有成效。所以将成功单纯因于策略技巧是不对,原因很简单,因为你只对成功的人进行了取样分析。更重要的问题是:那些用了这个策略的公司究竟有多少是成功了的?”

    Once up a time long ago I read a book called In Search of Excellence. The authors analyzed leading companies are sorted out the secrets of success in a way that suggested that it was a replicable formula. The best companies do X, Y and Z was the claim. What was missing of course were all the companies that did X, Y and Z and failed. Mauboussin writes:

    很久之前,我曾读过一本叫做《寻找卓越》的书。作者研究了各大一流企业,探寻出它们成功的共同秘诀——一个可复制的方程式。最好的企业都做到了X.Y.Z三点。当然书里没提到的是做到了X,Y,Z三点却还是失败了的企业。Mauboussin写道:

    “There are numerous books that purport toguide management toward success. Most of the research in these books follows acommon method: find successful businesses, identify the common practices ofthose businesses, and recommend that the manager imitate them. Perhaps the bestknown book of this genre is Good to Great byJim Collins. He analyzed thousands of companies and selected 11 that experienced an improvement fromgood to great results.

    “有不计其数的书籍都试图去引导管理层走向成功。这些书里面的大多数研究都遵循一个方法:寻找成功的企业,识别这些企业的共性,然后建议管理层去模仿。可能这类体裁的书里面最好的一本是Jim Collins的《从优秀到伟大》,毕竟他研究了几千家企业,然后挑选了11家从优秀进步到伟大的企业。

    He then identified the common attributes that he believed caused those companies to improve and recommended that other companies embrace those attributes. Among the traits were leadership, people, focus, and discipline. While Collins certainly has good intentions, the trouble is that causality is not clear in these examples. Because performance always depends on both skill and luck, a given strategy will succeed only part of the time.

    然后他辨别了那些自己确信的导致这些企业进步的共同因素,并建议管理层去追随这些因素。这些共同因素包括了领导者、人、专注、和律己。Collins的初衷是好的,但是问题在于这些案例中的因果关系并不明晰。因为企业的表现取决于能力和运气的双重因素,而一种策略往往只能在某些特定的时候才能成功。

    11. “The process of social influence and cumulative advantage frequently generates a distribution that is best described by a power law. … One of the key features of distributions that follow a power law is that there are very few large values and lots of small values. As a result, the idea of an “average” has no meaning.” 

    11,“社会影响和累积优势的过程经常会呈现幂函数的分布特征……这种幂函数分布的特征之一是高数额分布得少,而小数额分布的数量多。这样一来,平均数值其实没有什么意义。”

    I call this the paradox of luck as a riff on Mauboussin’s “paradox of skill.” My thesis is that the luckier you get, the more skill you can get if the conditions are right. This happens because of what is known as “cumulative advantage.” As an example, the more financial success someone like a venture capitalist gets, the more skilled people they get to work with since they are attracted to that success, which makes the venture capitalist more skilled, which makes them more financially successful [repeat].

    我把这个叫做运气的悖论,跟Mauboussin的“技巧的悖论”相呼应。我的观点是:只要环境允许,一个人越幸运就越能增长更多的技能。这个的原理是“累积优势”。比如,一个风险投资人投资越成功,他们就越有可能跟个人能力更强的人一起工作,因为这些人会被他的成功吸引而来。而这反过来又会使得这位风险投资人的投资能力见涨,最终他的投资绩效也会更好(循环往复)。

    My thesis is: financial success caused by luck begets not only greater financial success, but greater skill. A good example on this point is a statement made by Michael Moritz years ago.  He said: “I know there are millions of people around the world have worked as hard and diligently as I have and weirdly enough, like [former US President] Jimmy Carter said years and years ago, ‘life’s unfair’. I just happen to have been very fortunate.”

    我认为运气不仅仅能带来财务上更大规模的成功,还能使技能增长。有个不错的例子证明这点,Michael Moritz多年前说:“我知道全世界有数不清的人跟我一样辛苦工作,但就像前总统JimmyCarter说的那样: ‘生活是不公平的’。我只是运气好而已。”

    “A chimpanzee could have been a successful Silicon Valley venture capitalist in 1986.” The key point about what Moritz describes is that luck did not just make him richer, it made him more skilled since he was exposed to opportunities and teachers that he would not otherwise have encountered. Being lucky made him more skilled and that process fed back on itself. Luck and skill are different but one can lead to the other in a way that create a virtuous circle.

    “在1986年的时候,就算是一只大猩猩,它都能在硅谷搞风投。”Moritz的话重点在于运气不仅让他变得更富裕,还让他更多的接触到了那些他不曾想过的机遇和老师们。因为运气,他才变得更有能力,这过程让他收益颇丰。运气和能力是不同的,但是它们中的一者可以对另一者产生影响,从而进入良性循环。

    12. “Knowing what you can know and knowing what you can’t know are both essential ingredients of deciding well.” 

    “知道自己能懂什么,知道自己弄不懂什么,在做决定时同等重要。”

    The best investors are certain of just about nothing and spend a lot of time trying to learn more about what they do not know and cannot know. Mauboussin is chairman of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory. Perhaps the greatest things I have learned about complex adaptive systems is to more aware of what I do not know.

    “最优秀的投资者几乎对什么事情都不敢妄下决定,他们会花大把时间去尝试,去更多地学习自己不懂的东西和弄不太明白的东西。Mauboussin是圣菲研究所的董事会主席——圣菲研究所是针对复杂系统理论的跨学科研究中心。我从复杂适应系统中学到的最重要的莫过于对自己不懂的事情有了更强烈的意识。”

    If you ever attend a meeting at Sante Fe Institute meeting you will see famous investors in the audience who are hungry for information on what they do not know or can’t know. Great investors are humble but yet aggressive when they see a significant opportunity within their circle of competence. Munger is a good person to give the closing statement:

    如果你曾经在圣菲研究院参加过会议,你会看到听众席上的那些知名的投资者们对自己不了解的都求知若渴。在自己的能力圈内看到重要投资机会时,这些了不起的投资者的态度都很谦逊,但却不乏狼性。

    相关链接:

    精译求精系列之一:顶级大师霍华德马克斯谈投资秘诀:敢于成就伟大

    精译求精系列之二:卡尔伊坎卖出苹果,巴菲特买入苹果,你左右为难了吗?

    精译求精系列之三:昙花一现?科技新贵的刹那芳华(上)

    精译求精系列之三:科技公司的生命周期被压缩—投资者的一大挑战(下)

    精译求精系列之四:脱欧到底意味着什么?!

    精译求精系列之五:华尔街如何对优步(Uber)进行估值(上)?

    精译求精系列之五:华尔街如何对优步(Uber)进行估值?(中)

    精译求精系列之六:寻找十倍股的不二法门,投入资本回报率(上)

    精译求精系列之六:寻找十倍股的不二法门,投入资本回报率(下)

    精译求精系列之七:优步的主要竞争对手Lyft有什么独特之处?(上)

    精译求精系列之七:优步的主要竞争对手Lyft有什么独特之处(下)?

    精译求精系列之八:美国基金经理七月资产配置调查

    精译求精系列之九:巴菲特炮轰川普,川普“跌停”?(中英对照视频

    精译求精系列之十:华尔街太傅:风投,一个定价,而非估值的游戏(上)

    格隆汇声明:格隆汇作为免费、开放、共享的海外投资研究交流平台,并未持有任何关联公司股票。转载本文,请务必注明来源“港股那点事”及作者。

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    来源: 港股那点事
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